#C-COCOA Price Forecast | Lower demand expectations bearish for #C-COCOA | IFCM New Zealand

Technical Analysis #C-COCOA : 2020-07-01

Recommendation for Cocoa :

Sell
Strong SellSellNeutralBuyStrong Buy

Below 2169

Sell Stop

Above 2385

Stop Loss

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Senior Analytical Expert
Articles 1559
IndicatorValueSignal
RSI Neutral
MACD Sell
Donchian Channel Sell
MA(50) Sell
Fractals Sell
Parabolic SAR Sell

Chart Analysis

IFC Markets Tech Analysis

On the daily timeframe #C-COCOA: D1 has fallen below the 50-day moving average MA(50) which is declining. We believe the bearish momentum will continue after the price breaches below the lower Donchian boundary at 2169. This level can be used as an entry point for placing a pending order to sell. The stop loss can be placed above 2385. After placing the pending order the stop loss is to be moved every day to the next fractal high, following Parabolic signals. Thus, we are changing the expected profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point. If the price meets the stop-loss level (2385) without reaching the order (2169) we recommend cancelling the order: the market sustains internal changes which were not taken into account.

Fundamental Analysis

Coronavirus outbreak negatively impacts chocolate consumption. Will the cocoa price slide continue?

Chocolate global consumption has suffered from shutdowns since coronavirus outbreak. The International Monetary Fund lowered its outlook for the world economy couple of days ago. This is bad news for cocoa consumption, which is positively correlated with gross domestic product. In the year ended June 14, US sales of candy chocolate at traditional retail outlets fell 1.9% from a year earlier, according to IRI, a Chicago-based market researcher. Expectations of lower demand are bearish for cocoa.

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