Key data for the US dollar rate are expected on Friday | IFCM
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Key data for the US dollar rate are expected on Friday

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    2023/02/27
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The US dollar rise against other world currencies continued last week. The US dollar index was opened with an upward “gap” on Monday. Investors had a positive reaction on the successful delivery of Russian humanitarian aid to Ukraine. In part this helped to ease the political situation. The weak performance of German economy indicators (IFO) can be considered as an additional growth factor. It weakened the euro and strengthened the US dollar.

The dollar index was in the range the rest of the week. The US positive macroeconomic data was reported on Tuesday and Thursday, and that kept the dollar at quite a high level, so that it could even renew the 13-month high. Durable Goods Orders in July upped 22.6% on Tuesday. For this reason Morgan Stanley bank raised the US GDP growth forecast in the third quarter by 0.5%, to 3.5% year on year; Barclays bank – by 0.3% to 2.7%. Consumer Confidence Index in August jumped to the highest level since October 2007 and reached 92.4 points. On Thursday, the GDP for the second quarter was revised upward in the second reading, from 4% to 4.2%. This was the highest increase in the third quarter of 2013.

The US Initial Claims sagged for a second consecutive week, although it was expected to climb. Pending Home Sales in July added 3.3% and hit the 11-month high. The most significant US economic data will be released on Friday: Non-farm Payrolls and unemployment rate in August. In our opinion, the tentative forecast seems to be positive for the dollar. Economic data will be reported during the rest of the week.

Manufacturing ISM will be announced on Tuesday; Factory Orders on Wednesday; Trade Deficit, the weekly labor market and unemployment data is to be reported on Thursday, which is calculated by ADP agency. The crucial day for the Eurozone will be Thursday, when a regular ECB meeting will take place. Some parameters of the monetary policy easing will be announced at the meeting.

In theory, it can lead to subsequent euro depreciation. Among the significant events for other currencies can be considered the meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia and the GDP data on Tuesday, the meeting of the Bank of Canada will take place on Wednesday, and the one of the Bank of England on Thursday. The Canadian labor market data will come out on Friday.

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